Electric vehicles have drawn so much attention lately. Governments all over the world are introducing subsidies and concessions to convince people to adopt EVs faster. All this leaves us with many fundamental questions: Why is the adoption of EVs even required? Is electric transport the future? How far are EVs sustainable? and many more. This blog series is all about addressing these fundamental questions and give a detailed insight on electric transport and EVs holistically.
What are EVs?
As the name suggests: "Electric Vehicles", these run on electricity. Electric energy is stored in the form of chemical energy in storage batteries which are then fed to the DC motors that power the vehicle to move. On the other hand, electric trains including metro and monorails run on electricity derived from the live feed wire above or below them. The working of electric trains is beyond the scope of this blog.
What are the types of EVs available in the market?
1. Battery EVs
2. Plug-in Hybrid EVs.
3. Hybrid EVs.
4. Fuel-cell EVs.
Battery EVs:
Normally called EVs, which are completely powered by a battery. They have to be plugged in for charging. Batteries can be charged by regenerative braking but only a small part gets charged this way.
Plug-In Hybrid EVs:
A plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) runs mostly on batteries recharged by plugging into the power grid. But it also has a gas-powered internal combustion engine. This recharges the battery and/or replaces the electric motor when the battery is low and more power is required. These are cheaper and cleaner than traditional Hybrid vehicles.
Hybrid EVs:
They have two complementary drive systems that run simultaneously: a gas-powered engine and fuel tank, along with an electric motor and a battery.
Fuel Cell EVs:
A fuel-cell electric vehicle uses onboard fuel cells to generate electricity from hydrogen and oxygen and power an electric motor.
Fuel cell vehicles are expected to grow in popularity in coming years, but they’re limited because of the safe storage, usage, and hazards of hydrogen.
Why is the transition to EVs talked about so much?
In a country as big as India, there's a huge requirement for effective transportation to move millions of people every day. That requires a huge number of public and private transport. As the standard of living increases, people prefer owning and using their own vehicles to using public transport. The movement of vehicles on National highways has been steadily rising over the past decade. According to an estimate, about 90% of the Indian population uses roadways and it's not surprising. All this daily commute leads to pollution in the atmosphere and the environment around. More than 25 Indian cities are among the top 100 polluted cities in the world. Pollution due to transportation is a significant contributor to it. In cities like Delhi, it can take as much as 2-3 hours to cross a 1-Km traffic signal. If EVs are in the place of combustion engines, imagine the amount of energy saved, air pollution cut and noise pollution reduced in such traffic jams. EVs are better at converting energy to power vehicles.
Electric vehicles have a smaller carbon footprint than gasoline-powered cars, no matter where the electricity is sourced from.
How big is the EV market?
The global demand for EVs and hybrid cars has been sharply rising since 2012. The year 2020 was a significant year for electric vehicles. According to the Global EV Outlook 2021, global electric car stock reached 10 million units, 41% higher than in 2019. Europe has seen the biggest leap in EVs for the year 2020.
The Indian automotive industry is the fifth-largest in the world and is slated to be the third-largest by 2030. By shifting to EVs, India stands to benefit on many fronts: It has a relative abundance of renewable energy resources and availability of skilled manpower in the technology and manufacturing sectors. 100 per cent foreign direct investment is allowed in this sector under the automatic route. The government is also prioritizing the shift towards clean mobility, and recent moves to amend the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in India (FAME) II scheme to make electric two-wheelers more affordable. The govt. has rolled out a production linked Incentive scheme for ACC battery storage manufacturing which will incentivize the domestic production of such batteries and reduce the dependence on imports.
Responding to the opportunities in India, OLA Electric Mobility Pvt, Ather Energy, and Mahindra Electrics are rapidly growing their market presence. Recently, Tesla Inc, an American clean energy company has marked its entry into India by incorporating its subsidiary, Tesla India Motors and Energy Pvt Ltd, in Bengaluru. In Feb 2021, Arthur Energy moved its factory from Bengaluru to Hosur. Its factory is said to have an annual production capacity of 0.11 million two-wheelers.
In March ‘21, OLA electric announced that it would be setting up the world’s largest electric scooter plant in Hosur aiming to produce 2 million units a year. By 2022, Ola Electric wants to scale up production to give out 10 million vehicles annually or 15 per cent of the world’s e-scooters.Karnataka was the first state to introduce a comprehensive EV policy and has emerged as a hotspot for EV businesses in India. Tamil Nadu is also leaping forward at a commendable pace, owing to its supply ecosystem, larger land parcel, proximity to ports, and proactive investor support through administrative portals like Guidance Tamil Nadu.
Tata Motors has been at the forefront of the new wave of e-mobility in India. From unveiling the EV powertrain technology called Ziptron to accelerating efforts to creating a conducive ecosystem along with addressing customer concern about range and performance, the company has marked its presence in every aspect of the electrification drive.Anand Kulkarni, Product Line Director – Electric Vehicle & ALFA Architecture - Passenger Vehicle Business Unit, Tata Motors said, “India's passenger car market expected to hit 4 million units by 2027, leading to higher car penetration. The focus should be to improve air quality and put less polluting vehicles into the market.". He expects, “15 per cent improvement in energy density of battery tech by 2024-2025 and another 20 per cent improvement beyond 2025. Also, a 10 per cent improvement is expected in the packaging efficiency of battery technology going forward. You can expect to see a 5-6 per cent jump in efficiency levels of EV motors by 2025 and beyond.".
Electric vehicle demands in India has grown significantly, double to be precise, in the last three years. India had 69,012 units of electric vehicles on road in 2017-18. The number increased to 143,358 units in 2018-19 and then to 167,041 units in 2019-20. The FAME II scheme aims to put around 10 lakh electric vehicles on road by March 2022. But, according to the Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV), the criteria under the scheme made electric two-wheelers unaffordable despite the subsidies offered. It had requested the government to either rejig the FAME-II scheme or reintroduce FAME-I before fixing the issues.
The EV market in India is expected to hit over 63 lakh unit mark per annum by 2027 according to a report by Indian Energy Storage Alliance (IESA). Low-cost financing is the key constraint hindering the growth of this segment as per the report. As per a report, the low-speed battery two-wheelers were dominating the market, but with more companies getting FAME 2 certification, the sale of high-speed electric 2 wheelers is expected to grow rapidly. It also said that the Pb acid battery tech will be completely obsolete and out of the market in the next 5 years. The e-rickshaw market is poised for growth in the upcoming years as many new markets opened: Agra, Indore, Bhopal, Raipur.
Industry experts believe that price factor coupled with infrastructure limitation will not be able to give desired demand boost to EVs in India and the country will see about 8% new EV car sales by 2030. It’s expected that by 2040, over half of all passenger vehicles sold will be electric. Countries like Europe, China are expected to see more penetration. Global investment in EVs surged 28% in the year 2020. In 2020, the passenger EV market increased 4 times when compared to that of 2016. India's electric vehicle sales to grow at 26% in FY21-23 says Fitch Solutions.
What are the current battery technologies in use? What are the prospective developments in battery tech.?
Ni-Cd and Ni-MH batteries along with Lead-acid batteries were being used so far. But, Li-based batteries have taken over the market in the past few years. Li-based batteries are currently used everywhere staring from mobile batteries to EV batteries. Li-based Nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries dominate the market at present. Tesla uses lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminium chemistry and is working on a set of cobalt-free or reduced batteries drawing on lithium-iron-phosphate technology and chemistries that rely more heavily on nickel. Other efforts are also being taken to replace the usage of poisonous and costly Cobalt with Nickel which has double advantages: It's cheaper to extract and process and it allows higher energy densities to be stored on them.
The research community is also working on developing other kinds of batteries that use sodium-based technology. It's still under development and testing. Solid-state batteries and batteries using Si-based cathodes are round the corner. They’re expected to increase range, charge-discharge cycles, reduce cost, improve safety.
What are the materials that are used in the manufacturing of batteries and where are they sourced from?
Li, Co, Ni are the chief metals used in making modern lithium-based batteries. Lithium-ion batteries operate by an anode made of graphite and a cathode made of varying combinations of cobalt, nickel, manganese, and several other alternatives. Lithium is concentrated in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the world’s dominant source of cobalt.
The Democratic Republic of Congo is the world’s biggest producer of cobalt which accounts for around 60% of global cobalt extraction. DRC’s cobalt resources are disproportionately invested in and mined by Chinese firms and In 2018, China accounted for about 85% of DRC’s total cobalt ore and concentrate exports, by value. Chinese companies dominate the production and processing of critical raw materials necessary for EV production. They do so with the support of state subsidies, responding to Beijing’s ambitions to control the EV supply chain and the wider industry. China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) supplies BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Honda. This concentrated supply control and influence introduces a single point failure of supply chains which could get magnified and generate ripple effects within the industry around the globe.
Technological advancements could shift the materials landscape, for example, silicon inputs could replace graphite as the anode source on lithium-ion batteries. Cathode innovation, such as Tesla’s efforts to reduce cobalt in its batteries, offers another path towards improved environmental safety standards.
Beijing also dominates related industrial sectors, like polysilicon, the upstream input used in the solar panel supply chain. It therefore may be premature to expect technological breakthroughs to solve supply chain risks. CATL, China’s largest EV battery maker is a key partner in Tesla’s latest plans which include the Li-ion phosphate approach.
Scope for battery manufacture in India:
Epsilon Advanced Materials Pvt Ltd. a private company has set up a Li-based battery manufacturing factory in Karnataka. The factory is set up by Vikram Handa, the son-in-law of Sajjan Jindal (Founder of JSW). The factory will be equipped enough to produce 1 lakh tones of synthetic graphite anode by 2030 which makes up a quarter of the cell. This production amount will be equivalent to 10% of global demand by then. Over 80% of these supplies is produced by China. This factory is expected to break china’s monopoly and lure manufacturers from China. Also, the transport minister of India promised in march of new “Battery policy”, soon. Mr Handa believes that India has great scope to produce batteries locally as it has access to raw materials.
The transport minister also said "India has got the tremendous capability for making green power... Within six months, I am confident that we will be in a position to make 100 per cent lithium-ion battery in India, there is no shortage of lithium,". He also went to say that in due course of time, India will be the number one EV maker in the world.
Cost of manufacturing an EV:
The cost of ab EV is because of what goes inside it. The modern batteries in usage are based on Li, Co, Ni, Mn, etc; These metals need to be mined, processed and purified to the highest possible level.
At current rates and pack sizes, a typical vehicle’s battery costs about Rs. 5,00,000 INR to 6,00,000 INR. This has come down a lot from the past decade. This pricing is still a 10-15,000 INR costlier than an internal combustion engine for 1 KWh. Further fall in price will trigger mass adoption to a great extent.
Manufacturers and governments are keen on bringing the battery costs down. One of the methods aims at replacing high-cost Co with low-cost Ni. But Co doesn’t overheat or catch fire easily. So when a substitute is used, necessary safety precautions need to be taken.
Cost can also be brought down by introducing modifications to the manufacturing process itself. Tesla has commissioned the largest casting machine ever made that’ll produce the entire rear section of a car as a single piece of die-cast aluminium. Integrating the battery with a vehicle chassis could also trim the volume of material used.
China seems to be in the apex position in EVs except for a few key areas. Automobile chips, which are advanced semiconductor design software, are not made in china in a large number. These chips are of paramount importance to an EV that regulates and saves battery whenever possible. Only about 5% of these chips are made in China. Mistubishi Co, Semikron AG, Fuji Electric Co, Toshiba Corp. are some of the major and leading producers of automobile chips.
Cost of an EV:
The major cost of an EV besides the motor and the car itself is the batteries that are fitted. The cost of EVs largely depends on what kind of batteries are fitted, where they’re sourced from and manufacturing techniques.
TATA NEXON EV is priced a little over 14.5 Lakh INR on-road Chennai.
TATA TIGOR EV is priced at a little less than 12 Lakh INR on-road Chennai.
MG ZS EV is priced around Rs. 22 Lakh INR on-road Chennai.
The high-end Tesla Model 3, Model S, Model Y, Model X, which are expected to be launched by 2022 are expected to be priced anywhere between 50 Lakh INR and 2 Cr INR, depending on the model. A factor that further raises the cost of these cars is the import taxes levied by the Govt. of India. The costs of EVs are expected to come down in near future with more options to buy, more investment in R&D and subsidies.
That's all for part 01 of the blog on EVs.
Part 02 will cover:
Types of charging and availability of charging points on the go, Running and maintenance cost comparison between EVs and traditional combustion engine cars, the lifetime of batteries, Afterlife of batteries, Pollution caused during manufacture and after the battery becomes dead, challenges faced by EVs and the public's eagerness towards adopting e-scooters and e-cars.
Part 03 shall cover:
Energy requirement in India right now, Expected energy demand in 10 and 20 years, Hike in energy demand due to increased number electric-powered transport by then, How India is preparing to feed the EV revolution in India, Economic impacts of EV adoption, How long will it take to switch to E-transport completely or is it even possible? Will conventional fossil fuel-powered transport co-exist with EVs? And much more.
Part 04 shall cover:
Other miscellaneous types of cleaner transport like: Hybrids, Fuel cell cars, Plug-in hybrids. It shall include the conclusion, citings and references to the original reports and articles.
Thank you for reading this till here. This blog is open to constructive criticism. Comment your thoughts below.
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